Update and BL 21\22 coverage + quick previews

some updates on the state of this newsletter, thoughts on the difficulties clubs and coaches are facing and some quick previews

Hello there, dear subscriber! It’s been a while since the last post, about

ago but who’s counting. As you are aware, this newsletter has been dormant for a combination of reasons that has left me with an insufficient amount of time to properly write/hash out the type of analysis I feel comfortable sharing. One of those reasons - talking about the Bundesliga on TV and the requisite hours of preparing/watching matches - has changed and that has led to this:

Abel Meszaros 🌈 @BundesPL

just letting you know that I'm currently a #Bundesliga free agent and looking to do some coverage (primarily in English): muckrack.com/abel-meszaros/… RTs appreciated, DMs are open

So while I’ll still be involved with some Bundesliga teams (in UCL and the DFB Pokal), I’m looking to contribute to Bundesliga coverage primarily in English!

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For the moment, I’ll be putting my observations and analysis out in this newsletter form, and we’ll go from there. (I obviously suspended the paid portions of this back in December and don’t yet feel like it would be fair to bring it back. But maybe in the future, depending on how things go.)

Who’s even ready for the 21\22 season? - new coaches and worn-out players

I’ve also thought about how to approach this strange 2021\22 Bundesliga season, where there has been such a shortage of two things: 1. continuity and 2. rest.

To back that up with some numbers, let’s look at coaches: there are 8 (Adi Hütter, Steffen Baumgart, Jesse Marsch, Oliver Glasner, Gerardo Seoane, Marco Rose, Mark van Bommel and Julian Nagelsmann) who are starting at a new club, with 4 additional in-season appointments from last campaign (Markus Weinzierl, Pál Dárdai, Frank Kramer and Bo Svensson) continuing on. With 12 of the 18 coaches in charge for under 8 months, it makes the oft-criticized Sebastian Hoeness the 6th longest-tenured Bundesliga head coach, having been appointed August 1st of 2020. Ahead of him are Stuttgart’s American architect Rino Matarazzo, the two newly-promoted sides with Thomas Reis of VfL Bochum clocking in at just under 2 years, while Fürth’s ambitious and offensive-minded Stefan Leitl makes the podium, having replaced Damir Buric in February of 2019. You can guess the top man on this list in Christian Streich pretty easily, as he comes up on his 10th anniversary in charge, but Urs Fischer being the second-longest tenured head coach with 3 years in charge - replacing Adi Hütter on the list - tells you pretty much about job security/stability in the Bundesliga.

In terms of rest, it’s no secret that most of the players who have played the Euros in some shape or form have had at best a week or two of preseason. With last season’s UCL running into late August, there are some extreme examples of player’s receiving no rest. At the risk of running the Pedri being run into the ground analogy into the ground, meet Dani Olmo. The Spanish attacking marvel started the 2020 UCL semi final vs PSG on August 18th of 2020, continued with a Nations League match for Spain vs Ukraine on September 6th before rolling into the DFB Pokal first round match vs Nürnberg on September 12th of 2020. Fast forward: as his Leipzig team was kicking off their 2021\22 German Cup campaign in Sandhausen, Olmo was playing the final of the Olympic Games on August 7th of 2021, which by my calculation was his 68th match in what amounted to a calendar year. (He “loses” the minutes battle 4827 to 4927 if my math is correct).

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Quick-hitting previews and the impact of injuries might have on the early part of the season

And oh btw, we’re still in a pandemic, where clubs like BVB are losing 75m per year and clubs like Mainz just had a situation where a Covid-infected player has passed it on to 2 teammates, with 8 others unvaccinated, thus resulting in 11 players being out vs Leipzig on their season opener.

Mainz 05 English @Mainz05en

Bo Svensson: "On the recommendation of the health department, we haven't had any training yet this week. We will train with the squad for Sunday for the first time this afternoon. #Mainz05 #M05RBL

Thus, almost every team has either an incredibly long injury list, or a revamped squad with a new coach, or sometimes both (Leverkusen).

Among the top 6:

• Bayern/Dortmund have no healthy/functioning fullbacks, and lack CB depth and health

• Leipzig’s personnel (discounting the Sabitzer/Sörloth futures) is a bit more concrete after the excellent display vs Sandhausen with Henrichs, Halstenberg and little used Marcelo Saracchi missing. Jesse Marsch has mostly a full squad to pick from including the finally available Dominik Szoboszlai, who not only made his debut after 8 months, but scored his first goal for RBL.

• Oliver Glasner’s new team (Eintracht) is already out of the DFB Pokal after a dreadful showing vs the fighting Marc Schnatterers of Mannheim.

• Meanwhile his old team isn’t doing much better: Wolfsburg’s disastrous preseason under van Bommel seemed to have ended with a win vs Preussen Münster in the cup, which will likely be voided because of fielding a sixth substitute in extra time.

• Leverkusen lost 3 CBs and Leon Bailey in the offseason, with Bellarabi getting hurt in the Pokal, while Tapsoba, Wirtz, Alario are also unavailable to start the season.

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  In mid-table:

• Union have brought in over ten new players (most notably bringing back Taiwo Awoniyi for 6.5m), with a mix of low-risk younger players with some upside and BL experience (Rick van Drongelen, Paul Jaeckel and Timo Baumgartl), or some veterans (Behrens, Voglsammer, Haraguchi, Öztunali Rani Khedira) on a free, as well as a Polish LB (Puchacz) and winger (Wszolek) for what one must assume is a desperately needed compensation after the league has lost Lukasz Piszczek. There’s some good reason to be optimistic about the development curve that the team has taken under sporting director Oliver Ruhnert and Urs Fischer. As the challenge of adding more solutions in possession last season was for the most part successfully navigated, it might be the travails of the Conference League, and thus a larger and more Bundesliga proven squad sounds reasonable. Certainly wouldn’t be a shock to see them contend again.

• Gladbach under Adi Hütter did not look too promising in preseason games (caught the one vs. Paderborn), but Max Eberl has to be commended once again for thinning out the squad, managing to so far keep Thuram, Neuhaus, Zakaria, Ginter, Elvedi and Embolo (injured) while stealing Luca Netz (talked about him on the Top Bins podcast here) from Hertha for just 4m. Although Bensebaini and Embolo will miss the season’s first couple matches, they will also be boosted by the returns of Plea, Hofmann and Thuram, maybe even vs Bayern in the Friday night opener.

• Stuttgart were able to keep Sasa Kalajdzic thanks to the 38m for Kobel and Nico Gonzalez, but are gonna have a rough go of it with Mangala recovering, Silas suspended, some Covid issues (Kalajdzic, Coulibaly just getting back into team training) and some injuries to depth pieces like Cissé, Nartey and Egloff missing.

• Freiburg (promoting a lot of second teamers from the squad that came up to the 3. Liga now) and Hoffenheim (bringing back Seba Rudy, nabbing David Raum and picking up Angelo Stiller from Bayern) had a quiet offseason. TSG head coach Sebastian Hoeness also has to deal with the Covid issues of Bebou and Samassekou impacting preseason preparations, Grillitsch’s potential AC Milan move, the continuing CB injuries (Hübner, Bicakcic and Nordtveit are still recovering from last season’s ailments), while Skov and Kaderabek are also set to miss the first couple matches. He won’t make the list of 11 players, but Georginio Rutter is one to watch for a potentially interesting season and some playing time.

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  Down towards the bottom:

• Mainz’s off-season has seen them not extend the likes of Quaison, Mwene, Latza and Öztunal, with Flo Müller also going to Stuttgart after a nice season with Freiburg. The fighting Bo Svenssons have been on a nice trajectory and Heidel/Schmidt made some interesting signings with Stach as a hybrid DM/CB, Lucoqui and Widmer as decent fullback/wingbacks and the highly-coveted Jae-Sung Lee from Holstein Kiel. If they can keep up the pressing/defensive intensity and get some more creativity from Lee/Boetius, it could be a solid season, although the forward line with Szalai, Onisiwo and Burkardt looks thin.

• Augsburg continued to cut down on their bloated squad with Suchy, Schieber, Khedira departing, while Kevin Danso pulled the classic “not showing up to training camp to force my way out” move and got himself off to Lens. As one German U21 starlet Niklas Dorsch will feature in the 11 players piece, the most important business is the Arne Maier/Marco Richter swap. It makes sense for Augsburg, as their double six has been probably the weakest in the Bundesliga since Daniel Baier (now working as a scout for the team) retired. A Dorsch/Maier (with cameos by Gruezo and Moravek) double pivot looks at least exciting and not just on paper as we saw in the U21 Euros. Sadly, FCA will have to do without newsletter favorite Alfred Finnbogason, Tobi Strobl, Sergio Cordova and Reece Oxford in the early parts.

• With the signing of Suat Serdar (apologies for this video of his banger vs Liverpool), KP Boateng, Hertha’s central midfield (Ascacibar, Tousart, Darida) was more than covered even after shipping out Maier, Guendouzi (returned to Arsenal) and Sami Khedira (retired). Their need was on the wings and up top, after failing to agree for Radonjic, with the likes of Piatek, Cunha (Olympics + possible departure) and Cordoba (sold for a very nice sum of 20m to Krasnodar) not available to start the season. That means that returnee Davie Selke, who celebrated a little too hard for most people’s likings after a stoppage time winner vs 3rd division side Meppen in the first round of the cup, will likely start up top, with some combination of wingers Lukebakio and Richter (in a 433) or central playmakers Cunha and Jovetic (who now completes the play in all 5 top leagues challenge) behind. The big question is whether Pál Dárdai really is the coach capable of playing free-flowing attacking football, or at least something resembling of it, as the now Fredi Bobic led "Alte Dame” will surely need to be in contention for the European places to justify the Windhorst investment.

• Arminia Bielefeld are somewhat on a similar course to Union Berlin and not just because Uwe Neuhaus used to coach both teams.

  Much like the Berliners, clever sporting director Sami Arabi has slowly but surely rejiggered the team, getting rid of many of the promotion heroes over the summer (Voglsammer, Hartel and to a lesser extent Yabo and Soukou), in favor of promising and somewhat proven 22-24 year olds from the Austrian Bundesliga (Wimmer, Okugawa, or the Zweite Liga (Janni Serra, Seba Vasiliadis, Florian Krüger, Robin Hack). It remains to be see whether Frank Kramer is the right coach (a’la Urs Fischer) to make something out of this team and whether they can make up for losing Ritsu Doan…

  Still, replacing newsletter favorite Sven Schipplock was always gonna be tough, but I’ll certainly be okay with ex-Paderborner Vasiliadis.

• Speaking of ex-Paderborners, Cologne are now coached by Steffen Baumgart, who has added a mean beret to his look, going from the ex-football player turned NASCAR driver, to struggling boxing promoter meets golfer get up.

  

  

  He’s also at 1.00 odds to have the best quips in the season. Cologne are also a good example of how even staying in the league isn’t much of a guarantee as they are still cleaning up for the mess that Horst Heldt has left behind, and sold Ismail Jakobs, Sebastian Bornauw, Birger Verstraete for 22 million, while letting Dominik Drexler, Marco Höger, Lasse Sobiech and Max Meyer walk. We could go on about the likes of Limnios or Emmanuel Dennis or Tolu Arokodare, but let’s focus on some positives: Dejan Ljubicic looks intriguing, Timo Hübers is probably one of a handful of footballers on course to complete his master’s degree (next year) and Mark Uth coming home on a free is a thing, I guess. They still need to figure out their Skhiri situation (wants to leave, Baumgart has been playing Salih Özcan as the 6) and hope that Baumgart’s offensive football can get a lot out of Uth playing behind Modeste and Thielmann.

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  Up and comers:

• Finally, the two newcomers: Fürth lost their two best performers from their promotion season in Stach and Raum and mostly picked up the likes of HSV’s Gideon Jung for experience, with younger guys like Adrian Fein, Justin Hoogma and Max Christiansen looking for some playing time at the highest level after spells in the 2.Liga. Although he was with the team last season as well, you can certainly count Gian-Luca Itter here, as he has David Raum’s “best fullback and most assists in the 2.Liga” shoes to fill. But not in the first couple of matches, as Itter and fellow fullback Marco Meyerhöfer are out. What is more, last season’s main goal scoring threat (next to 16 goal scorer Branimir Hrgota of Frankfurt/Gladbach fame) Havard Nielsen is also set to miss the opener, while Jessic Ngankam’s unfortunate injury is a blow that could seriously impact their season. Even with a lot of faith in Leitl, it’s hard to see the team with the clover leaf as relegation candidate no 1.

  Derek Rae @RaeComm

  Today‘s #BackGardenBundesliga with some of the things you need to know about @kleeblattfuerth. - How to pronounce their name. - Tiny budget - Julian Green - The story of the Kleeblatt (cloverleaf)

  

• Bochum are in a better position, not because of having won the 2. Liga, but because of a stronger core, although Robert Zulj’s 15 goals have departed to Al-Ittihad for very little compensation. Still, the additions of Jimmy Antwi-Adjei (looks to have won the starting winger job in the Pokal match) and Takuma Asano as wingers behind Simon Zoller, with a solid midfield of Elvis Rexhbecaj, Eduard Löwen, Anthony Losilla and Robert Tesche ahead of last season’s stalwart back four of Gamboa and Soares as fullback, with the reliable Maxim Leitsch and the potentially generational Bella-Kotchap (even if Lampropoulos might start ahead of him after Reis criticized him for his cup performance) in defense. That looks like a nice squad that might just have enough.

  VfL Bochum 1848 @VfLBochum1848EN

  Welcome to anne Castroper, @polti1991! 🙌 The 30-year-old striker has signed a contract at the club until 30.06.2023. #TachPolti #meinVfL

  

So there you have it, we’re all caught up on the state of the newsletter front with some theories on how the season might play out, why it’s even tougher to predict, but still with a mini-breakdown of all teams.

In the next piece, I thought I’d focus on some newcomers (or some players in new surroundings), picking 11 players whose performances will “make or break” their teams’ season.

Thanks for reading, your support both here and on Twitter means the world!

Abel

In the heart of Europe 2.0? Eintracht's recent run analyzed

Continuing the multi-part Eintracht series, this analysis left off with the defensive personnel changes, which in my argument are the foundation of the recent success of the Bundesliga’s most in form team. In the final part, we’ll go through the rest of the matches and see how this Frankfurt team came together collectively and whether this success is sustainable.

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IV. Defense wins games?

The reason why I described the shift in personnel in Frankfurt’s defense is because they were responsible for massive improvement. In the first 13 matches, Frankfurt conceded 22 goals vs 20.4 xG allowed, while in the 9 matches since they shipped just 8 goals vs 6.4 xGA. That’s basically the difference between having the BEST defensive vs the 11-12th in the league.

Moreover, since the 2.0xG allowed vs Augsburg, Frankfurt’s defense has kept every team under 1 xG until the Bayern match (2.0). In addition, they allowed 15 fewer direct completions (non-crosses/passes inside of 20 yards completed) than in the previous 11 matches. Their PPDA is also down from 9.67 to to 8.87, which would (surprisingly) be the most intense one in the Hütter era!

A good example for this defensive blueprint was the 2-1 vs Leverkusen, where Eintracht’s 3421 matched up well vs the 433 of Peter Bosz.

Abel Meszaros @BundesPL

Eintracht nominally playing a 3421 but it's often the ball-side wingback pressing up, weakside WB staying to form a back 4 -Hasebe+Sow man-oriented on the 8s Wirtz\Amiri -Younes shadows the 6(Baumi) -B04 forced to recycle to CBs -dribble + cross switch to Bailey option #SGEB04

The man-orientations in the center, the Kostic/Durm duo showing a lot of dynamism in covering the Leverkusen fullbacks and the fact that Leverkusen had to play Dragovic and Weiser, their third choice fullbacks with severe limitations, favored Eintracht and other than the brilliant Wirtz, Amiri goal B04 failed to create much.

Meanwhile, Ndicka and Sow (4 tackles, 5 interceptions) won the ball and would get it to Hasebe or Younes to create in transition for hit the direct ball to Andre Silva\Kamada.

Given that this was the first game of 2021 and B04 were carrying a thin squad full of injuries + still in the cup and UEL, you could’ve chalked this Frankfurt win up to the “it happens” category.

Nobody thought it was huge news, the only one that really made a big deal out of this performance was Peter Bosz, who conceded that “Eintracht were clearly better in all phases of the game”. In fairness to them, Leverkusen got the revenge with a 4-1 cup win (Silva had 2 chances to go up 2-0, but Diaby and co. countered Frankfurt to death in the 2nd half), and Eintracht were still only in 8th place with a 0 goal difference after 14 matches.

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V. Beating the teams you are supposed to beat

Their visit to Mainz - 1 win on the season and fresh off the 2-0 turned 5-2 vs Bayern with new coach Bo Svensson - seemed easy on paper, but Adi Hütter has until that match collected just 1 point from 4 outings vs the local rivals. Still, their 3421 exploited a lot of its natural advantages vs the 4231, threatened in transition with Kamada switching to Kostic, beat the pressing with extra CBs joining the attack high. (Mainz would later start its escape from the relegation zone in their 532 with not one but two Frankfurt players, Danny da Costa and Dominik Kohr as fixtures in that lineup).

Then there was Amin Younes, who went from this innocuous situation

past Latza and Boetius and threaded the ball to Andre Silva who was brought down and converted the subsequent penalty.

Silva and Durm probably should’ve finished this game off early in the second half, but their misses allowed Mainz to stay in it, though Burkardt could not convert three good to great chances in the first 20 minutes of the second half: a point blank header hit the post, he missed a shot from an angle inside the box and Trapp came out well to close down space in 1v1. Silva put the game to bed, after Niakhate committed his second foul leading to a penalty to win 2-0.

On Matchday 16, they began with 3 chances inside 2 minutes vs the other worst team in the Bundesliga up to that point: despite Aymen Barkok, who started alongside Younes, missing his chances, Schalke was never allowed to break out of their defensive shell. Frankfurt’s counterpressing was suffocating, as we can see from this open play situation before Andre Silva’s goal. Just how are Schalke supposed to run a counter from this? How little of a threat did they pose if all the defensively-tasked Frankfurt players are near the box?

The fact that Schalke were still in this game in the second half was due to 2 factors:

1.the miscommunication between Trapp and Hinteregger allowing Hoppe’s goal

2.and Ralf Fahrmann making 7 saves conceding 3 goals vs the post shot xG of 3.5 and winning the Michael Esser memorial trophy (looking great as a GK because your defense constantly “gives” you opportunities)

VI. Sidebar Jovic and the squad remake again

The other takeaway from the Schalke match was the debut of Luka Jovic, who returned as part of a stunning loan-move/coup just 2 days earlier, and promptly scored two great goals late to seal the 3-1 win. It was #narrative (at the time) to write that his return would be a smash success and he would instantly start for what seemed to be a team that could use another prolific goal scorer. That isn’t a bad take when the second leading scorer Bas Dost was sold to Belgium - out of the blue in January - presumably due to his previously described limitations, his 4m + 3m/year in salary close to age 32 with a massive history of injuries. The problem is that other than that debut brace, Jovic scored just once - a meaningless goal vs Bielefeld, and hasn’t gotten (reportedly thought he would start vs Cologne) or shown the ability to be a Silva replacement. In the Bayern match, where Silva was out, Jovic was anonymous with just 28 touches and 0 shots, and he was certainly outshined by the brilliant Younes and Kamada, but probably even his replacement Ragner Ache, who was unlucky not to get a penalty vs Alphonso Davies. What was more troubling is that Jovic, whose effort level can wax and wane is far off the pressure numbers he was putting up a couple years ago.

While Hütter was quick to defend Jovic, who last played the full 90 in November in the Nations League, Fredi Bobic is on record saying that keeping the Real Madrid loanee will be difficult. A lot will depend on the future of Silva, whose contract Bobic was quick to extend until 2023 in December, and the prospect of Champions League next season is sure to be appealing to all parties.

The two caveat here - Silva is a Jorge Mendes client and the rumors about a 30m buyout clause (though there are contrasting reports about its existence) are abound, so perhaps an exit after next season seems like an obvious solution. But, if they can’t keep Jovic, it would seem ill-advised to sell Silva, though as we saw with Haller/Rebic/Jovic their history of eventually replacing top strikers is not bad!

VII. Zooming through 5 winnable matches before Bayern

Before we get too much into the transfer weeds and since this analysis is already getting long, I’ll just keep it brief on the last few matches: the 2-2 draw at Freiburg and the subsequent 4 relatively comfortable wins (Arminia, Hertha, Hoffenheim and Cologne).

Facing the rather atypical 4132 of Freiburg, Frankfurt used Amin Younes and some overloads in really creative ways to ensure presence between the lines and to create chances.

Younes in the halfspace, beyond the first 2 pressing lines but ahead of the back 4, asking questions of the Freiburg DM Lienhart

there was a lot of instruction on the part of Christian Streich for Roland Sallai to close down Younes quicker in the first half

while Frankfurt adjusted

with Hasebe stepping up into the left number 8 spot to form a diamond vs a 433 shape.

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In the end, the draw was a strange result:Freiburg’s 0.06 open play xG sums up their efforts - they looked out of ideas once the dangerous Roland Sallai went off (took a hit from Hasebe in the 2nd minute and had to be subbed out early in the second half), but wasted first half chances from Silva and Hinteregger plus two mistakes from Ndicka meant that Frankfurt need Kamada’s deflected shot to take a point.

The match vs Bielefeld was perhaps the easiest one all season:

some nice passing by Hinteregger, a long-range Kostic goal and comical defending to gift Silva a goal was enough to put Frankfurt 2-0 up vs Arminia. The Portuguese striker smashed in a Kostic assist and it meant 3 goals in 32 minutes, game over.

Will the real Daichi Kamada please stand up?

An interesting takeaway from that match was Kamada adding 22 pressures and 8 shot creating actions. At the other half of the double ten, the Japanese playmaker has 16 goal creating actions, the same as Jadon Sancho and is tied for the league lead. In some ways, his season is mirroring Frankfurt’s: 36 SCAs in the opening 7 games with 5 goals created was followed by a downturn: in particular after the November international break (he was with Japan) in the next 7 matches he had 11 of his 16 SCA in the Union (3 goals created) and Mainz matches, despite starting 6 of them. After losing his starting job to Barkok, he bounced back with the tying goal in Freiburg and then erupted for 8 SCA and 3 goals created vs Bielefeld and in the last 4 matches has 12 SCAs and 4 goals created. Kamada’s a really unique player due to his technical ability to receive deep in opposition half, which despite the tendency to lose the ball in physical battles, he uses to create for others, ranking 3rd in expected assists and 5th in actual assists.

In terms of creating for himself, Kamada has made a lot of improvements via being more efficient: last season, he took just 2.19 shots per 90 and hit the target 40% of the time, in addition to ranking in the 17th and 15th percentile in goals and goals per shot. This year, his shot volume is down to 1.47 and his accuracy declined to just 24%, but Kamada has jumped to the 40-60th percentile in the goals and goals per shot categories. The reason is shot quality, as he’s gone from taking 12% shots (non penalty xG per shot is 0.12) to 15%-ers (0.15) and how every second of his shots on target is a goal (0.5) vs every 9th (0.11). He’s still underperforming his xG and in his second full Bundesliga season at age 23, there’s certainly a lot to be excited about.

Abel Meszaros @BundesPL

Don't look now, but in last 10 games, #EintrachtFrankfurt have the 2nd most points and top expected points (debatable metric, but still) 16 goals in 18 for Andre #Silva - only 1.5 xG behind Lewy P.S. I knew my 65 slides on @eintracht_eng would come in handy at some point

Hertha’s man-orientations force Frankfurt CBs to make plays

Similarly to the Mainz match, Hertha were another opponent undergoing a crisis as they faced Eintracht, with Pál Dárdai once again returning to keep them in the Bundesliga, after a nightmare year for the “Big City Club”.

Given the Hungarian’s focus on defense, basic tactics and aggressive man-marking, it was up to Frankfurt’s CBs to make plays and with the help of their withdrawn DMs Hasebe and Sow, they did a very good job of playing through the scheme.

When Hertha pressed high (though they probably did not have the right personnel and execution with Guendouzi and Cunha), their fullbacks were pinned back by Kostic on one side, and Kamada drifting out wide (sometimes taking a DM with him), while Younes moved deep to open spaces for Sow and Hasebe to step into.

In the middle and final thirds, Frankfurt’s CBs penetrated well and

utilized superior structures to have numerous passing structures and deep runs that

Hertha could not cope with.

Against Hoffenheim’s 5212 there was once again tactical superiority via

• the penetrating CBs (Ndicka had 57 carries, which was his 3rd highest total of the season in a game where Frankfurt had 53% possession)

• Younes pulling out the RCB,

Abel Meszaros @BundesPL

Eintracht -penetrate via Ndicka (Kostic pins the RWB in 5212) past Rudy -overload the left halfspace w #Younes and #Kamada - Posch decisional crisis (dragged out of back 5) -Kostic\Silva runs behind #TSGSGE

• Kostic winning the duel against his old friend Mijat Gacinovic (looking out of sorts as emergency wingback)

  

• Silva with the threat running in behind and Kamada making plays on the counter, with the three of them combining to put the game to bed after the solo goal of Bebou (Hinteregger and Hasebe looked off the pace there) and some misses by Kramaric.

By the Cologne match, the recipe for Eintracht’s new found success came together:

• the defense lead by Ndicka, who scored another goal, held Cologne to just 6 shots and 0.5 xG,

• while also controlling possession vs the aggressive pressing of Cologne via Hinteregger’s touches in defensive third and progressing the ball (Ndicka and Tuta vs the to midfield. It wasn’t always pretty and there were occasional turnovers but they got the ball to the midfield

• where either Kostic’s powerful runs or the deep-dropping Younes’s trickery (3 of 6 dribbles) or Hasebe’s carries would get it to the final third

• where eventually Silva broke through midway through the second half before Ndicka’s set piece goal sealed the win.

VII. Tired: 6 trophies in a season Bayern, Wired: Frankfurt with Younes

The most anticipated match between 2021’s two best Bundesliga teams saw Bayern not show up in the first half, perhaps due to the fatigue - mentally from having won everything and physically from flying around the world and playing their 5th match in 15 days.

To air out all the excuses: the Bavarians have been notoriously slow-starters this season and missed the pressing of Thomas Müller and the presence of Leon Goretzka (his entrance changed the dynamic and nearly got them the 2-2) and the summer signings (Bouna Sarr has been unplayable for weeks, putting Niklas Süle in the Filip Kostic torture chamber) especially the “featherweight” Roca in midfield (you could see how much Rode dominated him vs how much Goretzka added in the second half) and the artist formerly known as Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting as the number ten just looked overmatched.

Abel Meszaros @BundesPL

Huge #SGEFCB match btw 2 best BL teams in 2021 🚫 Silva, Müller -SGE's occupation of spaces before FCB defense gets boost w Jovic -can Tuta+Ndicka match Sane+Coman? -will SGE miss Sow's b2b runs? -Süle vs Kostic -EMCM (overload space behind Kostic) + Roca to make an impact?

Defensively, Hinteregger erased Lewandowski for much of the match and the wide CBs covered Sane-Coman well in the first half, while Touré was able to match Davies’s speed.

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Then there was Amin Younes, who put in perhaps the best 45 minute performance in the league this season: it wasn’t that he completed 8\10 dribbles with 7 shot creating actions, scored a goal of the season contender and was just omnipresent. It reminded me of a basketball player “feeling it” that is if you got close to him, he would drive by you, if you laid off him he would beat you with a pass and then just get the ball back or create for others. It was just Younes finding spaces all over the pitch, seemingly wanting the ball and playing with an edge. It wasn’t the usual point to prove against Bayern or to show himself to Jogi Löw, but something deeper, more emotional, almost nostalgic in the pure joy he exuded on that emotional day commemorating the victims of the Hanau terror attacks.

Rebecca @L_Rebecca_

.@Eintracht Frankfurt bester Verein der Welt. #Saytheirnames There. I said it.

It was the “gesture of the year” as the excellent Christoph Biermann called it and his analysis of Eintracht beating Bayern on and off the pitch (referring to Kalle Rummenigge’s awkward and evasive appearance on ZDF,) was as per usual on the money.

Eintracht are now at 65% to make the Champions League per Fivethirtyeight and with a Friday night win against Bremen, could really even get themselves into the title race and make it a four horse race….

In the heart of Europe again? What’s next for Eintracht?

Kicker asked nearly 64k participants about Eintracht’s end of the season ranking, with 11.7% voting for Bundesliga winners, 54.63% as UCL qualifiers with 31.68% for 5th-6th place and 2% saying they will miss out.

At the risk of raining on Frankfurt’s parade and bringing the Eagles back to ground - albeit when one has written upwards of 10k words, can he really be a party pooper? - there are a lot of unresolved issues that this analysis will conclude with. We are looking for the answers to the following questions:

• as long-time sporting director Bruno Hübner is leaving, though given his recent move towards the background and Bobic/Manga running day to day things that might just be a bump in the road

• but what happens to Fredi Bobic (contract until 2023) who has been in rumors with Hertha BSC? (Pirmin Schwegler’s name came up as successor, but Ben Manga would be the obvious choice)

• what about Adi Hütter, who reportedly is a candidate at Gladbach and has a 2m buyout clause, would he really jump ship to a club that’s seemingly worse off than Frankfurt, now?

• or the likes Andre Silva sticking around? What about the ability to hang on to loanees like Jovic, Younes or projects like Kamada in the long-term?

If indeed, Frankfurt do finish in the UCL spots and maybe fans return sometime in the fall, perhaps some of those questions (Bobic, Hütter) will answer themselves, but for now let’s just enjoy this moment.

Thanks for reading,

Abel

Frankfurt Amin Love: How Younes and the switch to the double 10 changed Eintracht's season

plus defensive and midfield adjustments, overcoming adversity, analysis Kostic of, Kamada, Jovic, Silva and more

This two-part analysis will try to showcase these important aspects that resulted in Eintracht Frankfurt currently being the most in form team in German football.

The previous post, which ended with the introduction of the 3-3 draw vs Gladbach highlighted the problem with the result. However, in terms of the performance and especially as the first match with the 3421 featuring Amin Younes as the main actor, it serves as the beginning of the Eintracht turnaround. In this piece I will try to show the benefits of the new system for the Frankfurt attack, which in terms of numbers is a 9-0-1 record, a goal difference of +18, an xG difference of +12.25 (Understat) or 8.2 (Fbref)

In terms of personnel, this analysis will start the examination of the offensive improvement from Younes’ effects in particular on Filip Kostic, while acknowledging the constant presence and evolution of Andre Silva from a striker who had half a season of good production (top 20-60 in most metrics, into a top 10 striker in the big 5 leagues (goals, goals per 90, xG/90 per Fbref.com)

In addition, it will also highlight the previous defensive issues that stabilized by switching to a younger, more dynamic back 3 and how Frankfurt found more solutions with the ball as a result.

Finally, it will take a look at the potential future of this squad and what the “price” of success could be for Frankfurt’s players and coaches as they battle for the Champions League.

But in order to get to all of that, we first need to examine that crazy 3-3 draw vs Gladbach in detail:

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I. All great streaks start with adversity

Gladbach started out promisingly, attacking the space ahead of the back 3 via the deep movements of Thuram and Stindl in transition, stretching the back line via high fullbacks, particularly with Stefan Lainer getting beyond Kostic and pulling Hinteregger out. This left some space for Thuram/Plea/Stindl and the arriving CMs - Kramer and Bénes to combine centrally. The lead up to Stindl’s free kick goal was one such example, with Hinteregger losing possession vs a double team and Rode/Sow not securing the center, so that Bénes had a free run and would be fouled by Hasebe.

At the same time, Frankfurt pressed very aggressively and high against Gladbach’s buildup. The risk was as we saw above, the press being broken and Gladbach running riot in transition, but the reward was also high: with Younes or Sow winning the ball in central positions they would just need the final through ball to create a chance.

In addition, by inviting Gladbach to press with Sow joining the back line and pushing the side CBs wide, they could go over the top to Kostic, who ran down the wing and earned a corner from which Lainer’s handball ensued.

Right after the equalizer, Frankfurt began to take advantage of their positional/dynamical advantages offered by Barkok (often joining the wings, but also excellent in transition) and Younes between the lines, pulling out the LCB Elvedi. This instance in the 23rd minute was intercepted by Ginter making a great play,

but Andre Silva’s next off-ball run off the shoulder of the German international CB was rewarded. Barkok’s chip over the top was as brilliant as Silva’s composed finish.

Already in the 27th minute, captain David Abraham, who by then has announced his decision to return to Argentina, looked out of position on a cross that Marcus Thuram just missed. In my understanding it took considerable good will on his part to not leave after this match, staying until MD 16 with Schalke as his farewell game. The veteran would pick up his first yellow, muscling Stindl to the ground in the 31st minute - Plea drew Hasebe out, Hinteregger was dragged wide by Hannes Wolf - but then made up for it just seconds later.

Frankfurt superior, but blow it late

He read the vertical pass intended for Plea and quickly played the ball to Andre Silva, who ran a 2v1 vs Elvedi with Barkok, who added a couple humiliating dribbles before making it 3-1.

Eintracht dominated at this point: Hinteregger’s wide positions and sidestepping of the press allowed Kostic to run in, while Rode’s interceptions launched transition attacks that Gladbach’s midfield duo of Kramer and Bénes struggled to deal with. In the second half, although Marco Rose brought on Denis Zakaria and Valentino Lazaro to add some pace and dribbling to his midfield, it was Frankfurt that had 2 medium-sized chances, with Silva and Younes failing to make the most of two efforts inside the box from about 9-12 yards out. It seemed like this was Eintracht’s match to win, but the 80th minute second yellow on Abraham (cynical tactical foul on Embolo in transition) came back to bite them. Aymen Barkok’s 89th minute would be clearance caught Embolo’s leg and it was just a silly/forgiveable mistake that still had SGE 3-2 up. I’m not sure the excuse was (for Dominik Kohr) to leave Stindl open on this 95th minute cross,

but Stindl outjumping\wanting the ball more against the recovering Ilsanker/Hasebe and the trio of Frankfurt players standing around is inexcusable.

Interestingly, and this is something Hütter has taken a lot of flak for over the years from SGE fans, the coach elected to praise the spirit and performance of his team - aside from the first ten and the last 5 minutes. Hütter pointed out that although they had been winless for the ninth match in a row, he was pleased with the unity and mentality of the team and that they would be rewarded for it.

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II. Hütter was right, the change is happening! Advantages and disadvantages of the 3421

That analysis is actually supported by what I saw and hopefully showed in the previous segment. And well, that’s why he is in charge, as Adi Hütter was exactly right about results catching up with performance, with Frankfurt amassing 25 points - 6 more than second place Leipzig - over the next 9 outings, with over 20 expected points to boot.

Chance creation, possession and chaos vs Augsburg

In general, the Augsburg match was a lot more chaotic and while that is not usually a bad thing for the Hütter team, they were fortunate to have skated by. It was a strange match where Eintracht both created and conceded several big chances, but neither Silva (0 for 3 on shots on target), nor Younes (2 efforts on target, well-saved by Gikiewicz) nor Kostic’s headers and Erik Durm’s excellent long-range effort resulted in a goal.

They faded all of the Augsburg big chances, with Niederlechner missing in transition (Tuta, Hinteregger), Caligiuri not finding Finnbogason accurately enough in the box in the 15th and the Icelander missing a huge chance in the 27th and in the 45th, while Marco Richter and Michael Gregoritsch also wasted opportunities.

Their fortunes seemed to have turned with an own goal where Younes had no shot at getting to the ball and a really nice run and finish by Ilsanker into the box in the 87th minute, sandwiched by 3 shots before and after by FCA.

Although they were fortunate, their shape and setup also had some excellent offensive ideas that were responsible for creating chances.

In terms of tactical concepts, their 3421 with the double ten of Barkok and Younes used a midfield box, that was difficult for Augsburg, because the 10s occupied spaces ahead of the CBs (who had to deal with Andre Silva) and behind the Khedira-Gruezo double pivot, who weren’t always sure if they should follow Barkok-Younes or press Sow - Rode.

Frankfurt’s positional edge did also leave something on the table, as Rode didn’t manage to go for the most progressive option here (he later apologized to Durm).

The other benefit of the double ten formation - Dortmund and Leipzig do this well - is to create overloads on one side by shifting one of these creative playmakers. Here’s an example after a quick throw-in where the right-sided 10 Barkok dribbles inwards all the way from the left side. Note how FCA’s 442 is taken apart by the Barkok/Younes/Rode combination which ends with Durm nearly scoring.

Last but not least, - the 3421 base shape with high wingbacks Durm and Kostic pinning the fullbacks wide also had advantages in transition moments:

whether by winning the ball back and immediately stretching the last line,

or in counterpressing, following a long ball that Augsburg clear. Notice how Younes\Barkok have a dynamic and positional advantage to get to the second ball ahead of the Augsburg DMs.

All in all, this match can be seen as the turning point: a little luck in front of goal, but the attacking movements were starting to click with Barkok/Younes and Kostic. Still, despite the 2-0 win and the clean sheet, the 2.0 non penalty xG allowed was in 3rd place for worst defensive metric (Union had 2.1 and Bayern in the 5-0 had 3.4) of the season. Frankfurt would go on to rectify this situation in the next few matches.

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III. Tightened defense as Hinteregger replaces Hasebe, Ndicka returns, Tuta steps up, Younes starts to make a big difference.

One issue they had was personnel and experience based and affected their 3 CB backline. Although Makoto Hasebe was one of the best CBs in the first half of the previous season and is set to continue playing for potentially one more year at age 37, his best role might be more of a DM at this point. Although, he used to play at RB and as the right sided 8 in the diamond at Wolfsburg under Felix Magath, and mostly as a CB (with occasional stints at DM) since he moved to Frankfurt, he began his career as a central midfielder in Guido Buchwald’s 3-5-2 in the J-League.

While he has a tremendous understanding/reading ability of the game, his timing this season has often looked out of sync with the others when he was in the last line.

As we will see later on, in the bigger matches, his intelligent timing in pressing can be an asset higher up the pitch.

In addition, his passing and ball retention/progression skills are perhaps better utilized at DM, though he has 99th percentile shot creating actions (via his dribbles/carries into the final third as we discussed in part 2), vs 18th as a midfielder. Also, Djibril Sow reestablished his spot as the more box to box DM: he offers less dropping into the backline for ball circulation (though he has the incisive pass in him, see the Schalke match) more dynamism and defensive volume. In the other spot, Hütter has essentially opted for Hasebe over Sebastian Rode, whose performances have dipped slightly (missed 4 games with nagging injuries), but as we see there isn’t a whole lot between the two players when it comes to data comparison. In fact, Rode comes out looking better in some creative stats and pressing, though Hasebe has the edge with 41% of dribblers tackled vs 30% and he’s way ahead on clearances.

Of course, this could just have to do with Hasebe regaining the captain’s armband after Abraham’s departure, but the much larger factor is the rejiggering of the back 3.

As we saw, the starting back 3 in the early parts of the season was the 37-year-old Hasebe in the center, 28-year-old Hinteregger at LCB and 34-year-old Abraham at RCB. In fairness, the ideal starting back 3 would’ve sure included Even Ndicka - another scouting gem by Ben Manga for 5.5m from Auxerre at 18 - who has been close to a fixture for the last 2.5 seasons, but picked up a ligament injury after the DFB Pokal match vs 1860 Munich in mid September. He can also play as an out and out LB due to his speed and dynamism (see last season’s switch to a 4 chain), and with him in the lineup, Frankfurt have lost just once from 13 matches (vs. Wolfsburg).

As you can see from all the green in the scouting report, the tape and his age profile, he’s easily the Eintracht CB with the most potential.

With Ndicka at LCB, Hinteregger moves to the center, and as we saw Hasebe is pushed up to DM, but of course in Frankfurt’s system those players are responsible for buildup and ball circulation.

That leaves us the right side, where long-time captain David Abraham’s retirement has been looming for a while now. 2 years ago Fredi Bobic and Ben Manga smartly signed Tuta - for 1.8 million from Sao Paulo’s reservers - and as they did with others like Kamada sent him on loan to Belgium where he played from November to March as a regular at RCB in a 4231 at Kortrijk. Despite the odd positional error here and there (see vs Augsburg or Lewandowski’s third goal in the 5-0) he has looked very capable in defending and has superb athleticism to recover when he’s asked to join the attack.

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So much for the theoretical improvements. In the final part, this analysis will cover the defensive upgrades as one of the driving forces behind the current unbeaten run by analyzing some upsets and winnable games. Furthermore, we will break down the offensive success and the agents behind it. I’ll also speculate on the future of Eintracht’s squad, wondering whether this success is sustainable, or an example of another outlier season like 2018\19, or perhaps a new reality which represents a mixture of the two….

The rise of Eintracht part 3: Lost in mediocrity, "schedule" draws, plus the rise of Aymen Barkok and the wait for Amin Younes

examining Frankfurt's progress between the Bayern match and before the change to the double ten

In the previous two parts, I retraced the steps from the 2018\19 season to the first 5 matches of the 2020\21 season, where the 5-0 Bayern loss put a dent into Eintracht’s strong start (8 points from 4 matches). Moreover, Frankfurt would go on to draw 6 of the next 7 matches, albeit as part of a tough schedule against overachievers (Stuttgart/Union Berlin) and genuine top 6 teams (Leipzig, Dortmund and Wolfsburg). Although one has to beware of retrofitting this narrative onto Eintracht’s season, it’s interesting to consider that the aforementioned issues - Ilsanker in the double pivot, Dost up top, not using Barkok and Younes as starters - persisted in the next few matches.

In this next part I will go through this spell and examine whether those issues were fixable at the time and how the coaching staff tried to resolve them via tactical and lineup changes. It should also reveal how Adi Hütter came about making the key tactical change after the Wolfsburg loss: abandoning the 2 striker set up in favor of the Kamada/Younes double pivot behind the consistently excellent Andre Silva, which triggered this current run of excellence. That change and the run will be discussed in the final part of the analysis.

Not all draws are created equal

Frankfurt’s aforementioned run of 5 matches with a draw post Bayern, began promisingly. They outplayed Bremen for much of the match,

but as seen in the images, one mistake in the timing of their counterpressing was enough to concede. After striker Bas Dost did not get the call from the referee, Rode was late in his efforts to get to the ball. Given how synchronized such counterpressing movements must be, Rode’s pressure on the ball carrier triggered Abraham to step to Bittencourt, but he had no chance getting to him. With the RCB leaving his zone free, and the supporting counterpressing players (Kamada/Toure) not being able to win the ball, it allowed Josh Sargent to waltz in for the opener.

One positive sign was the previously mentioned introductions of Barkok and Younes.

They came on at the hour mark with as the attacking wingbacks, and Barkok quickly made an impact, as he won the ball of Mbom high up the pitch, allowing Kamada to set up Andre Silva for a tap-in. Although Silva made the most of that chance, his 7 other attempts were in vain, with his biggest chance coming just before that equalizer.

Thrillers galore, the midfield still remains problematic

The match against the entertaining VfB Stuttgart was a thriller, but one that Eintracht started poorly: Dominik Kohr, who came on at halftime in the Bremen match partnered Ilsanker, but they were often outmatched by Stuttgart’s transition game, which seemed to set up some good pressing traps around the predictable Hasebe to Kamada diagonal.

As you can see neither Kohr nor Ilsanker are in a position to stop a counter - in general Eintracht use at most their 3 CBs (one of which will often be in poor counterpressing access due to needing to play make deep in the opposition half) and their 2 DMs in what’s known as rest defense.

Here is a more poignant example, as David Abraham makes a deep run towards the corner flag, expecting either a cross into the box (with Kamada, Silva and Dost attacking) or a return from Almamy Toure:

Yet, the cross is blocked and Eintracht are now caught in a woeful situation from a counterpressing perspective. You can see just how poorly organized they are with little to no access to the ball, 3 players isolated in the box and on the right wing.

With the channel free, Stuttgart need some clever off-ball movement from Gonzalo Castro and one pass from Kempf to essentially run a counter vs at most 3 Frankfurt players (rest defense)

Though it was perhaps spurred by Castro’s touch being less than optimal Ilsanker opts not to delay and play 3v3 (though I’m not 100% sure on what the principle here is, my guess based on knowing a little about the RB school is that when there’s not at least a couple players with counterpressing access and proper pressure on the ball, he should delay and recover) but to commit himself into a challenge.

That doesn’t go well and suddenly Hasebe and Hinteregger (who ends up defending Silas and Gonzalez’s dribble perfectly) face a 2v3 vs the wily Castro, the speedster Silas and the terrifying Gonzalez. It ends with perhaps the best option from an Eintracht perspective: Nico chooses Castro, who fires wide\over the bar.

That sort of decision-making and general sluggishness would show itself in what was defensively a bad 1st half: Toure ends up giving away the penalty vs Gonzalez, Ilsanker steps out and gets caught halfway for Castro’s goal (Abraham doesn’t look too great here either). Bas Dost also tried to get involved in the second goal at midfield, while both he and Kohr were culpable for missing several big 1st half chances at the other end of the pitch.

You can see just how deep SGE’s strikers were and how little end product the two wingbacks had vs Stuttgart' in the first half by the pass map from https://betweentheposts.net/.

So it’s no surprise that Hütter went for broke down 2-0 at halftime, introducing Younes and Barkok at wingback for Zuber and Touré. Once Gonzales missed his chance from 8 yards following a diagonal run from a nice set piece, Frankfurt’s all out offense stretched VfB’s last line.

Barkok’s aggression and dribbling created the 1st goal, and his 75th minute corner connected with Abraham finding a nice pocket in between the zonal coverage (4 plus 4 in two rows) of Stuttgart. Kevin Trapp’s save on Tanguy Coulibaly made sure that Frankfurt got at least 1 point for their efforts, though with an xG score of 2.3 vs 2.4, the 2-2 draw seemed fair.

Changes in the lineup and some draws vs the big teams without Amin Younes

The conclusions drawn from that Stuttgart match had some consequences for Eintracht’s starting lineup,

• with Erik Durm replacing Touré at RWB,

• Djibril Sow coming in next to Ilsanker to offer more box to box presence

• Filip Kostic fit again to play the full 90 after his 4 minute cameo vs VfB

• and Evan Ndicka who missed the first 7 matches after a ligament injury coming in as LCB, making Hinteregger the “Abwerchef” and Hasebe seemingly the odd man out.

Leipzig dominated proceedings, controlling possession and territory, while also holding SGE to just 8 shots, but paid the price for missing their half chances (Olmo, Sorloth, Haidara ) when Barkok raced in after Upamecano misjudged the header and fired past Gulácsi. The second half saw substitute Yussuf Poulsen score an acrobatic goal and miss one chance, while Gulácsi’s 78th minute stop on Andre Silva ensured another draw for Frankfurt. Their 47 pressures in the opponent third were a season high and arguably one of the reasons why Leipzig were not able to create much. It’s worth mentioning that Amin Younes was unavailable due to contracting Covid and would only return as a late substitute vs Wolfsburg.

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Already after the Stuttgart match, Frankfurt were developing the reputation as the comeback kings of the Bundesliga - going behind 6 times, but losing just once!, Starting with the same XI from the Leipzig match, they certainly had ample practice after Union was up by 2 after just 5 minutes on MD 9, thanks to two clumsy individual errors by Kevin Trapp (spilling a shot to which his defenders didn’t react, but Robert Andrich did) and Hinteregger, who gave away a penalty vs Taiwo Awoniyi after Frankfurt were carved open centrally in defensive transition.

If the goals they conceded were uncharacteristic, the ones they scored in the first half were vintage Frankfurt: Kamada in transition with an Odegaardesque assist to Silva and Kostic from a free kick finding the Portuguese for a back to the goal looping header to make it 2-2. Silva would “only” get the pre-assist for what looked like the winner in the 78th, as Kamada once again put it on a platter for Bas Dost to finish on the far post, but the Japanese creator might have done more to close down Max Kruse, whose outside of the boot finish is still a goal of the season contender.

The 1:1 draw against Dortmund was similar to the Leipzig match: a good result in a match with 1 big missed chance each (Hummels from a set piece and Barkok blasting it over from ten yards) and a couple nice goals. Frankfurt took the lead via a superb Hinteregger assist to a diagonal run of Kamada, with the Japanese playmaker doing very well to chip it over Bürki, while a brilliant Gio Reyna solo goal saved BVB a point in a match where it was kind of the 343s cancelling each other out.

Abel Meszaros @BundesPL

3421 for BVB (no Haaland, w Brandt as false vs 3421 of SGE (no Bas Dost, but more creativity w Barkok) -would look at spaces in front of the CBs for the double 10s to exploit, the difference is SGE are likely to play those combos for crosses, while BVB will look for cutbacks

Frankfurt’s pressing was option-oriented and sought to constrict the field (leaving the ball far side open) in what was a 3313 with some central pressing traps (see the one on Witsel) and turned into man-oriented pressing in a 5122 low block once Dortmund crossed midfield. Their pressure was relentless as Hütter’s XI put up seasonal bests in number of pressures (182).

Without Erling Haaland as the over the top option and facing this compact 5122 that blocked the center, Dortmund often were left to circulate the ball between their 3 CBs and their fullbacks. It speaks volumes of SGE’s pressure that Can/Morey/Zagadou all had pass completions under 75%, meaning that Frankfurt were certainly hard to break down. Sans Raphael Guerreiro’s left wing creativity, other than Jadon Sancho’s dribbling, Dortmund couldn’t create much from open play, Sow (4 tackles) and Ndicka (11 tackles + interceptions combined) put in great shifts. As a result, this was BVB’s shot map, basically all low quality chances….

Changes in possession and no more 2 striker lineup

Already in the Dortmund match, where Frankfurt lined up in a 343 with Kamada and Barkok behind Silva, Hütter seemed to abandon the 2 striker formation. The match against Wolfsburg was an even better example: Frankfurt had to do without Andre Silva and play Dost and Kamada with 3 defensive midfielders in Ilsanker, Sow and Rode. The result was an opening 45 minutes between two highly intense teams producing lots of blocked/wayward shots. Of course, you probably don’t need hindsight to tell you that Wolfsburg were defensively excellent, seeing as they were unbeaten (together with Leverkusen) and conceded 10 goals in 10 matches up to that point, one off the pace set by B04 and RBL’s 9 at the time.

The second half saw Frankfurt not being able to capitalize in transition, with Kamada’s throughball to Sow in the 51st and his key pass to Kostic being their two main chances.

Kostic made matters worse with a horrendous backpass that put in Maxi Philipp only for Trapp to make 2 monster saves on the former BVB striker and Weghorst’s rebound as well. The Serbian winger was still a ways off his best following the injury and you could see this in his numbers. In the 8 games after his injury he had 1 assist and 22 shot creation actions vs his last 7 games of explosion: 2 goals 7 assists and 36 SCAs. We’ll examine why in the tactical change portion of the analysis….

Meanwhile Wolfsburg were yet to employ the “drop one of their DMs into the backline approach to bypass the 2 pressers”, opting for Casteels to go long instead. Eventually, they did grind Eintracht down and held them shotless - aside from the Bas Dost penalty that gave them the lead. Hütter sought to ride it out and kept Wolfsburg to long distance chances until Ilsanker’s handball gave Wout Weghorst a chance to redeem himself from the spot. Unfortunately, it was Ilsanker also at fault for letting Bartosz Bialek to run across him for the eventual winning goal in the 87th minute.

Although Frankfurt brought on da Costa, Barkok and Younes in search of the equalizer and put Hinteregger at striker late, it resulted in zero shots and Wolfsburg staying unbeaten. For Frankfurt meanwhile, it left them with a record of 2 wins 7 draws and 2 losses for just 13 points from 11 matches.

Interestingly, Kamada seems to have been taking some blame for not doing enough defensively and was put on the bench by Hütter for the mid week fixture against Gladbach. He wouldn’t necessarily chalk it up to poor performances but probably as a mix of motivating the Japanese playmaker and also to use the Barkok/Younes double ten as alternatives.

In the next part, I’ll take a look at that major tactical change - the long-awaited, COVID and injury delayed introduction of Amin Younes as a between the lines and deep playmaker, whose emergence ignited Frankfurt’s turnaround. Although like all good stories, they must begin with some adversity: the 3-3 draw against Gladbach, where at 88:52 minutes, Frankfurt were 3-1 up before the hour of Lars Stindl struck!

Thanks for reading

Abel

Part 2 of the rise of Eintracht Frankfurt : early season success followed by Bayern reality check

Dost, Ilsanker, Kamada, Barkok and the 2 striker system's limitations

I'm not better than the next trader, just quicker at admitting my mistakes and moving on to the next opportunity. - George Soros

Despite missing Andre Silva due to injury, Eintracht Frankfurt pulled off a major upset over Bayern Munich on Matchday 22. Their 2-1 victory saw SGE press and harangue Bayern in the first half, with Amin Younes, Filip Kostic and Daichi Kamada running riot over the Bavarians, whose second half Leon Goretzka led comeback ultimately fell short. The win now made it 11 unbeaten and 9 wins out of 10 for Eintracht, who have never started a Rückrunde with 5 consecutive wins.

Their chances of finishing in the UCL places have climbed to 64% over at Fivethirtyeight, compared to 18% on January 20th!

In order to fully appreciate this current Frankfurt team’s achievements, it’s worth looking back at where they came from. Part one looked at Eintracht’s transition season from the Büffelherde to missing out on Europe in 19\20 while this next part seeks to establish the context of Eintracht Frankfurt’s early start and then discuss their post-Bayern match struggles before the improbable success in 2021.

In going through the first 5 games, this piece will examine the (lack of) offseason moves, Adi Hütter’s 3412 system and its difficulties with regards to Bas Dost, their midfield issues in defensive transition and how the road to redemption began.

As always, these are my observations based on various input: personal experience/text/audio/video and data which I’ve accumulated over the last couple of years.

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“Historic season” with 2 wins 8 draws and 2 losses from first 12 matches

But how did this happen? It was from a steady climb to the top…. After all, most experts and betting sites had Eintracht between 7th (Tobias Escher was the highest on them) and 10th place. That all seemed quite realistic given the club’s situation, where Eintracht were still consolidating after their outlier season triggered the sale of Haller/Jovic/Rebic, while those with stronger squads and better resources were aiming higher.

Goalimpact @Goalimpact

Bundesliga kicks off tomorrow. No surprises to be expected in the upper half of the table. For a change, both promoted teams are facing high relegation risk according to their players Goalimpact. But they are in good company. Hertha probably the most surprising one here.

BStat @michael_karbach

Hier die Zusammenfassung aller Prognosen der @Bundesliga_DE bstat.de/doku.php/1920/… 1. #FCB 2. #BVB 3. #RBL 4. #BMG 💚 5. #B04 6. #WOB 7. #TSG 8. #SGE 9. #BSC 10.#SVW 11.#SCF 12.#S04 13.#FCA 14.#VFB 15.#M05 16.#FCU 17.#KOE 18.#ABI

There was no reason to think SGE could challenge last season’s top 5, despite Leverkusen and Leipzig getting weaker. If anything the challenge would seemingly come from the likes of the suddenly well-off Hertha, Seba Hoeness’ Hoffenheim or perhaps the steady improvement of Oliver Glasner’s Wolfsburg. In comparison, Eintracht were just not that exciting, and it did not only make sense narratively, but also squad depth-wise.

Much like the rest of the Bundesliga, impacted by COVID, Bobic and co were always unlikely to be able to to spend much on the transfer market. Now that Eintracht were no longer in Europe, their main concern was to thin the squad: Marco Russ, Johnny de Guzman and Gelson Fernandes all retired, while letting go of the likes of Simon Falette, Lucas Torro, Felix Wiedwald didn’t raise too many eyebrows. Loaning the young players such as Joveljic, Zalazar was smart, but not as smart as getting 2m from a desperate Schalke for Paciencia, which was the cost of the Amin Younes loan from Napoli. (more on that later)

They also swapped backup GKs with the Royal Blues (Fredrik Rönnow for Markus Schubert) and Hoffenheim. The latter move, Steven Zuber for Mijat Gacinovic now seems like a lose-lose for everyone in hindsight, even if Zuber got a few chances to play early in the season following Kostic’s injury. Finally they added two little-known players from the Eredivisie, the pacy but injury prone striker Ragnar Ache and the winger/playmaker Ajdin Hrustic (former Schalke teammate of Leroy Sané at the U17 level) neither of whom lit the Dutch league on fire at ages 22-24 respectively. It was certainly a very budget conscious approach and understandably not much to get excited about.

Early success via the 2 striker system

What fans of die Adler could get excited about were the first 3 games of the season. It all went quite well from Eintracht - the unfortunate opening day draw and the subsequent loss of Kostic on MD2 notwithstanding -as they took a 3 goal lead vs Hertha thanks to the Bas Dostiest header and Seppi Rode’s wonderful goal and hung on for the 3-1 win despite Hinteregger’s own goal. It was followed by an even first half, where they went behind after an outrageous Kramaric chip, before blowing away Hoffenheim in the 2nd half. Although some of it was thanks to the higher positioned wingbacks having better counterpressing access and some considerable difficulties for Hoffenheim to defend defensive transitions (Akpoguma), we must acknowledge Kamada’s improvement and his amazing solo before the 2-1. The 24-year-old Japanese has long been a Hütter project, ever-improving defensively, physically and in terms of effectiveness (both in terms of keeping the ball and finishing), but always possessed wonderful ability to unlock defenses via runs and passes. He was the standout player early on in the season, but it’s worth looking at Eintracht’s footballing ideas in a 3142 shape, which had 2 set patterns:

• building a back 4 by dropping one of the DMs (Rode and Ilsanker were the starters at this point) and getting out against the high press via their very wide CBs with the high wingbacks and usually at least Silva and Bas Dost pinning the opposition’s back line deep.

• Given that the Red Bull inspired Adi Hütter is their coach, it’s no surprise that Eintracht don’t have elaborate buildup patterns, they just want to get the ball to Dost and do layoffs to progress or at least get into good counterpressing shape once in the final 3rd

Eintracht’s early season shape had Hasebe carrying the ball into midfield with usually Ilsanker dropping in to sometimes form a back 4 with wide CBs, high WBs and Kamada between the lines.

Certainly in the early portion of the season, they had some key actors atop the pressing rankings, although both Rode and Kamada are surprises on here.

Two strikers, Bas Dost being too deep, not enough presence between the lines,

However, that certainly did not mean Eintracht were firing on all cylinders:

Lacking the speed and dribbling of Kostic, Hütter had Zuber play as a right footed LWB, providing an interesting diagonal option, but not a lot of end product, so a lot of the creativity fell on Daichi Kamada in the halfspaces, with the Japanese preferring the left side.

The other main issue was Bas Dost, who dropped incredibly deep to collect the ball, which is not great in theory (why do you wanna have your target man at midfield, especially when he no longer has the legs to get to the box) and only rarely good in practice (transition, so he can lay off to runners).

In addition, the injury to Evan Ndicka robbed Eintracht of their most athletic CB and pushed Hinteregger to LCB, where he’s both less effective and seems to have deferred to Hasebe. As we see above, against a 532 with man orientations, Hasebe often had to dribble forward -something he’s great at even at 37 - but Dost was often so deep that he could be picked up by the DM and not pull the CB out and the Japanese wasn’t always given options to pass to.

Although Hinteregger could hit Dost on these diagonals, a lot of the playmaking

fell to Hasebe, who also managed to access the Dutchman who to his credit did have 2 goals and 2 assists in the 3 game spell.

While, it’s probably not Bas Dost you want making plays between the lines, though until the Bayern match, Frankfurt were still doing great. With 8 points from 4 games, with an xG of 8 for vs 3.7 against, and 24.25 shot creating actions, a figure that would still have them as the 2nd most productive offensive alongside RBL, BVB and Stuttgart - all stats per Fbref.com - Eintracht was off to a flying start.

Unfortunately, the 5-0 defeat against Bayern was just too easy, in particular the double six of Rode and Ilsanker (several times failing to make tactical fouls, or going in to challenge) looked sluggish and unathletic against Kimmich, Steven Zuber didn’t put in a good performance and Leroy Sané ran riot.

Aside from the goals, one way to measure this ease of the Bayern demolition and account for SGE’s struggles is to examine pressure locations and success. This season, on a per 90 basis, Eintracht average around 153 events, which in line with the general trend in a congested European schedule is down from their 173.8 last season. That 153 is still the 7th most in the big 5 leagues, but more importantly Frankfurt have a success rate of 49% only bettered by two of Europe’s pressing juggernauts in Glasner’s Wolfsburg at 50% and Bielsa’s Leeds at 52%. Unfortunately that success rate vs Bayern that mark was just 28%, and you could visibly see the lack of range in midfield. In particular, Stefan Ilsanker - previously a standout player in the RB system due to his intelligence, versatility, leadership and once known as a counterpressing machine — looked off his best, which is borne out by Fbref data: he is pressing more than before, but perhaps due to his diminishing athleticism and range less successful in pressures (just 28% vs 35% as his worst season) and tackling (27% is the lowest since his last Leipzig season, which perhaps offers a reason why RBL were okay with letting him leave on a free).

A 5-0 pummeling at the hands of Bayern is often something best described by former Werder player Sebastian Prödl, who won Germany’s “football saying of the year” in 2015 for the infamous words: "Munich is like a visit to the dentist. Everyone has to go there. Can be quite painful. But it can also end lightly. (fortunately)"

While it’s tough to take positives out of that match, perhaps the light at the end of that tunnel was Hütter being able to try a couple of his offensive weapons, who were once considered promising youngsters now looking for a second chance:

1. local born Aymen Barkok has been in the Eintracht youth setup since 2013 and was a regular for Germany at the youth level, before declaring for Morocco recently. At the club level, the talented winger failed to break through under Kovac and spent the past 2 seasons at Fortuna Düsseldorf.

2. Amin Younes was in Gladbach’s youth teams since age 8 and made his debut at age 19 under Lucien Favre. Undergoing a remarkable footballing education under coaches such as Horst Hrubesch (DFB youth teams) Jogi Löw (called him up to the Confed Cup), Peter Bosz and Erik ten Hag (Ajax), Gennaro Gattuso and Carlo Ancelotti (Napoli), his career so far was more about not always living up to his limitless potential.

The next part analyzes some successful and some not so beneficial tactical adjustments as well as some personnel changes that at first solidified Frankfurt as rock solid Bundesliga team. It also discusses the growing importance of Aymen Barkok, why the double 10 was not yet an option, as well as offer some observations on the reasons for their winless spell following a good start. Finally, it will lay the groundwork how Andre Silva, Amin Younes, Fredi Bobic and Adi Hütter managed to turn Frankfurt into the best Bundesliga team of 2021. ,

Thanks for reading!